Accuweather: Jun 27, 2011; 11:15 AM ET
AccuWeather.com meteorologists continue to watch the Bay of Campeche for development, as it appears concerns for a tropical system may come to pass at midweek.
There is a chance of heavy rain and locally gusty winds affecting northeastern Mexico and part of South Texas.
The combination of an old, stalled frontal boundary, a broad area of low pressure and interaction of a tropical wave should be enough to get things spinning just a bit in the southwest Gulf of Mexico during the middle of the week.
This region, known as the Bay of Campeche, is a favored spots for development, due to the curvature of the coastline that tends to help give the lower atmosphere a little extra spin.
According to Tropical Weather and Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, “The broad area of low pressure will have some chance for slow development later on Tuesday through Wednesday.”
An area of high pressure along the northern Gulf Coast is much weaker, compared to much of the spring. However, further weakening or not will determine how far north this area of disturbed weather is able to move late in the week.
he general feeling in the office is that this feature will tend to drift more west, rather than north, so that much of the effects (rain and gusty thunderstorms) will roll into Mexico. While a drought has hit this area hard, enough rain could fall to cause flash flooding, mudslides and washouts.
Downpours have be pelting southern of Mexico and part of Central America in recent days, raising similar concerns.
Even on this more westward path, some drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms would graze South Texas.
A phenomenon, known as wind shear, was hindering development during the first part of this week.
“Weaker shear should become more of the rule over the Bay of Campeche as the week progresses,” Kottlowski said.
Interestingly, even as this system comes and goes, no matter what the strength, the door will remain opened for future disturbances to come along in the same area and other spots in the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean and the southwest Atlantic in the coming weeks.
Overall, a broad flow of tropical moisture will be present most days through at least the middle of July, bringing a mosaic of needed downpours. However, it is possible that in some cases the pattern could lead to quick, near-shore development of a tropical system with little notice.
All it will take is for the wind shear to drop off for a couple of days in the neighborhood of where one of these systems wanders through.